The resurrection is the event that changed the world, but the example of Jesus' daily communion with God and service to others is what perpetuates that change today.
-Luke Cunningham
We tend to focus only on the BIG LIFE EVENTS: weddings, birthday parties, concerts, new houses, new cars, and vacations. However, for lasting change, it is in daily mundane life:
It is in daily service of a husband and wife towards each other.
It is the regular listening to an artist's music that makes the concerts possible
It is the memories in the house that creates a home
It is the people and preparation that make a vacation special
It was not just the resurrection that made Jesus special. There are people who do not believe that Jesus rose from the dead but regardless, they honor the greatness of who he was on this Earth. That alone still changes people today. My challenge is for us to live our daily mundane life in such a way that we experience perpetual positive growth for ourselves and those around us.
Welcome back to the Rambling Mind Newsletter. This is your Market Update.
Markets
This newsletter is 1,720 words, 8 min read
Tale of the Tape
Economy
👷🏾♂️Jobs Jobs Jobs
We are slowly moving back to a "normal" employment environment. The hot labor market is turning warmer. But this is not necessarily a bad thing, just a more healthy state of where things should be.
🔢By The Numbers: We are heading back to the 2019 labor market, which was a very good time for the economy.
For the first time in two years, US job openings dropped below 10 million.
Every single industry saw a decline in job openings
In March, 236,000 jobs were added to the economy which is a much healthier job growth number
Labor Force grew by 480,000 workers in March. People who either got a job or are looking for employment.
Great Resignation is officially over.
The unemployment rate for Black workers fell to 5% from 5.7%
Lowest it has been since 1972 #winning
Takeaway: The Fed is loving what it is seeing in the Labor Market. The Fed continues to fight inflation, the labor market has been a thorn in its side. According to the Fed, a hot labor market makes inflation worse because it forces wages higher which in turn causes prices of goods and services to be higher. (I tend not to completely agree with this stance but what do I know). Wages have dropped from an annual growth rate of 4.9% to 3.2%, which aligns with where the Fed wants things to be.
My Takeaway: Historically, it has been impossible for the Fed to bring down inflation without causing worse employment situations. It seems the Fed has been able to figure it out this time around. I hope it lasts and that anyone looking for a job is able to get one. Unfortunately, I am not so optimistic. It feels like every other day there are more companies announcing a move to “efficiency”. Corporate-speak for layoffs.
McDonald's announced layoffs on Monday
🤑Money Note: According to a survey from Pew Research, 58% of men and 61% of women never ask for more money after being offered a job.
A company's job is to get the best talent for the lowest cost. They will not do the work on your behalf.
Always ASK! The worst they can say is NO, they already gave you the job.
Oil Back in News
OPEC reminded the world of the power they wield. On Monday, the oil cartel announced they would be cutting oil production by 1 million barrels per day. This follows a 2 million barrel cut they began in October.
🤔But Why?: Because they can.
Caroline Bain, a commodities analyst with Capital Economics said, "It is hard not to think that there is some geopolitical posturing embedded in these voluntary cuts. It demonstrates the group’s support for Russia and flies in the face of the Biden administration’s efforts to lower oil prices."
In Plain English: U.S., you do not scare us and we would like to disrupt the power you have over us. We want Russia to at least cause you enough pain to open an opportunity for us to have more control.
Other Reason: There has been a major slowdown in manufacturing output. The post-Covid boom seems to have faded completely.
US, Japan, and China over the last three months have seen a major decline in industrial manufacturing activity
Demand has fallen off a cliff as central banks in the US, UK, and EU have caused a major economic tightening with interest rates being risen.
This could be seen as a sign of a possible recession and the OPEC cartel does not want to be caught late to the party
🙄Why You Should Care?: Well, oil is a key cost in almost every good or service that is sold in the world. When oil prices go up, prices of everything increase. After the announcement, oil prices ripped higher by about 8% to $80/barrel. The highest it has been since January 2022.
Takeaway: Inflation has not declined much this year. With oil prices rising again, this could drive inflation higher. This also puts pressure on the Fed to do something and ensure they have control over inflation.
Stats of the Week
I know this is not a number but I had to highlight it. The First Black Man, The First Woman, and The First Canadian will be on a lunar mission.
The Moon?: No man has been on the moon since 1972. The Artemis II flight scheduled for 2024 will be part 2 of a 3-part mission to land man back on the moon.
Part 1 was a successful unmanned spaceflight orbiting the moon last year
Part 2 will be this successful manned flight that orbits the moon
Part 3 will be a successful manned flight that lands on the moon
🔢By The Numbers: Astronaut used to be the coolest job for kids, but that is no longer the case
YouTuber/Vlogger is #1
Teacher #2
Professional athlete
Musician
Astronaut
Takeaway: Let's be honest we all want to be YouTubers. It feels like easy money.
Continuing on the tone of career and young workers. According to a new survey from Axios & Generation Lab, 16% of college students say they dream of working for Google.
The Others: Surprisingly, the Federal Government (6%) ranked number 2 on the list.
Followed by Apple (5%) and Disney (2.2%)
GM reported that 5,000 salaried workers took buyouts. This allowed the company to avoid layoffs
💬What They Said: CFO Paul Jacobson said the Voluntary Separation Program was in line with expectations and cost the company about $1 billion in impairment charges less than the $1.5 Billion expected.
CEO Mary Barra said other cost-cutting measures are in place to ensure GM "maintains momentum, remains agile, and creates a more competitive GM".
Takeaway: No company is safe from higher rates and higher costs of everything.
EVs made up 5.6% of all new cars registered in the US in 2022. The number is still small but continues to grow as new options enter the market. In January 2023, 7% of all new cars registered in the US were an EV.
🔢By The Numbers: In 2020, 1.8% of all new cars were Electric Vehicles.
In 2021, it was 3.1%
There are now 47 models of electric vehicles available for sale, up from 33 in 2021.
In Norway, 87% of all cars sold were electric.
The US has a LONG WAY to go.
Takeaway: EVs are no longer for early adopters only. It is becoming the norm. There are now electric vehicles for most car types. However; for EVs to go fully mainstream, a much better-charging infrastructure is needed.
Looking Ahead
📈Inflation
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics will release CPI numbers for the month of March.
🔢BY The Numbers: Good news is the expectation is for inflation to continue its slow decline
Month-Over-Month deline of 0.1%, going from 0.4% in February to 0.3% in March.
Year over year decline of 1%, going form 6% in February to 5% in March.
Unfortuanately, it is expected for Core inflation, which removes food and gas prices, will increase from 5.5% in February to 5.6% in march.
Shelter continues to be the main driving factor as interest rates remain high.
🏦Earnings
Earnings season kicks off with the Big Banks opening their books to show us just how prepared for the possibility of a bank run.
JPMorgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all report earnings for the 1st Quarter of 2023 on Friday
It has been a very troubling quarter fro banks. Expect the use of words like safe, trust, and liquidity ALOT during those earnings calls.
🛍Takaway: These banks have massive insights into the way people spend their money. It will be interesting to see if there has been any changes to consumer spending since the beginning of the year.
March retail sales will be released on Friday to give a full picture of Consumer Spending.
Sports I Love
🤩😊Joy Returns to My Heart❣
One of my closest friends always touted (need a better word) how entertaining women's soccer can be. He was right. Seems everyone else is finally on that train with him.
📈GROWING: The LSU-Iowa NCAA Women's Basketball Final had almost 10 million viewers. That is more viewers than:
Every NBA Game this season
Every NBA Playoff Game last season minus the finals
Every MLB Postseason Game except the World Series
Every NASCAR race since 2017
Every NHL game in the last 50 years
Only 11 college football games had more viewers
Combine this with the large numbers we saw in Women's Soccer over the last few years:
The 2022 Women's Euro Final broke the attendance record at Wembley Stadium
1.1 Billion viewers watched the 2019 Women's World Cup
Takeaway: This is just the beginning. Advertising dollars are flooding into the space as the viewership numbers continue to grow. Except for much larger viewership numbers for this year's Women's World Cup, I just might be in the numbers.