Like you, I am trying to recover from Thanksgiving Weekend. While also digesting the moves of the stock market and the possibility of a railroad strike that would completely cripple the US economy.
A light read today 1025 Words about a 5 min read
Year to Date Stock Returns:
Tale of the Tape
Economy
On Tuesday, the largest rail union in the US rejected the Biden Administration’s labor deal, increasing chances that there will be a strike before Christmas.
Why: Unlike most labor deals, pay is not the issue. The deal included a 24% pay increase by 2024. The main issue for workers is what they claim to be unfair attendance policies and persistent understaffing issues since the pandemic. It is estimated that freight carriers have employed 30% fewer workers than they did 6 years ago.
By The Numbers: A Strike would cost the US
$2 Billion per day
$160 Billion over a month
1% decline in GDP
Takeaway: Last week, I went on a rant on how investors suck because they drive businesses to have the wrong focus. Railroads are a prime example of this. In an effort to drive shareholder returns higher, costs have been cut mercilessly. While share buybacks have increased exponentially. Leading to the pissed off-ness of railroad workers, who have had to work ever-increasing levels of grueling shifts. Well, they are fed up
Layoffs Spread😨
Tech ain't the only industry facing major layoffs as we head into the holiday season. Media and entertainment is also seeing major downsizing. A few companies that have already announced layoffs:
Warner Brothers Media has laid off 26% of its workforce as its debt load continues to weigh them down
Paramount Global, owners of CBS, announced cuts to its ad sales team
Disney announced hiring freezes and layoffs as streaming costs keep rising
Comcast laid off about 10% of its workforce
Morning Brew, my favorite newsletter, announced a 14% workforce reduction
Takeaway: The Fed is getting what it wants, kina. As the Fed continues its fight to smash inflation, they want unemployment to go up in order to keep wages in check. A side effect of going down this path is the increased likelihood we go into a recession. But the layoffs are not widespread. It has mainly affected money-losing and heavily indebted companies.
Stats of the Week
Amount spent on Black Friday according to Adobe's Business Insights.
Cyber Monday is today and it is estimated we will spend another $12 Billion
Nothing can stop the American Superpower
Looking Ahead
Economy
👨🏾🏭Jobs
Wednesday, we get an updated picture of the Labor Market with the JOLTS Report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). Job openings have remained above 10 million. Keeping an availability of 2 jobs for every unemployed person. Also on Wednesday, we get ADP's private payroll report to see if businesses are still adding on staff.
203,000 jobs are estimated to have been added in November
On Friday, we get the non-farm payroll report from the Department of Labor.
200,000 jobs are estimated to have been added in November
Unemployment is estimated to grow to 3.8%, up from 3.7%
Big Picture: The stronger the labor market remains, the more the Fed will keep its foot on the brakes and raise interest rates.
Sports I Love
⚽Ronaldo out, Man U 4 Sale
No Games played yet, Man U still taking Ls.
Two Weeks ago, Ronaldo had an interview with Piers Morgan calling out everyone at Man U. On Tuesday, Man U terminated his contract. Then on Tuesday night, Man U released a statement that said:
Manchester United announces today that the board is commencing a process to explore strategic alternatives for the club. The process is designed to enhance the club's future growth, with the ultimate goal of positioning the club to capitalize on opportunities both on the pitch and commercially. As part of this process, the board will consider all strategic alternatives, including new investment into the club, a sale, or other transactions involving the company
CRAZY how fast things change
🏆World Cup
Argentina and Germany have had the most disappointing outings of the tournament so far. If Argentina vs Saudi game is played 100 times, that was the one time Saudi Arabia would win. But this is why we watch the BEAUTIFUL GAME. My focus is on the West African nations:
🇸🇳Senegal has been disappointing. Without Mane, they have been very poor in front of goal.
🇬🇭Ghana had the most exciting game against Portugal. That is not a good thing. That game should have ended in a draw but they got caught sleeping
🇨🇲Cameroon. As of writing this post, I have not seen Cameroon play so don’t have much to say.
My Takeaways: This has been an exciting World Cup so far.
I hope an African team makes it into the knockout rounds. Senegal has the best chance if they don't blow it against South Korea this week.
The officiating has been BAD! VAR seems to be heavily relied
FOX is the worst soccer broadcasting partner I have ever watched!!
The announcers, the commentators, and the supposed "analysts" are just BAD.
Except for Kate Abdo, she is killing it.
Until Next Time Thanks for Rocking With ME
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Remember GENEROSITY > greed
God bless Each and Everyone of y’all
✌🏾
Extras
Loans Paused.....AGAIN🙄
The White House has extended the pause on student loan payments from December 31, 2022, to June 30, 2023. After a judge in Texas blocked the plans for Student Loan Forgiveness, Biden does not want to start repayment until his plan wins all legal battles.
My Takeaway: Use this opportunity to take back control. Do not wait for the government to be your savior. Put yourself in a situation where regardless of what happens, you will be in the best position. You can start saving the amount you need to pay off in a separate account and when loans are reactivated, you can just pay it off. I honestly believe the loan forgiveness will not go through, unfortunately.