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Welcome back to the Rambling Mind Newsletter. This is your Market Update.
Summary of Topics:
Stats of the Week
27% of car insurance claims are totaled
$100 Billion announcement from TSMN
172,017 Layoffs
Sports I Love
World Cup Halftime Show
Markets
Stocks have been in free fall since the fears of tariffs became more of a reality after Trump announced the US would be moving forward with its tariffs against Canada and Mexico. At least, that was what I wrote on Wednesday. Once again, the Trump administration delayed implementing the tariffs.
The constant flip-flopping can be disorienting for you as an investor. My advice is DO NOTHING and stick to your original plan. It may feel like you have to do something to address the immediate situation, but that's an emotional trap, especially for those of us who have a 10, 20, or 30-year horizon.
Don't let your emotions take you out of the game.
Returns
Tale of the Tape
Economy
Unemployment Rises
The Trump administration’s policies are beginning to show up in the labor market.
By The Numbers: 151,000 jobs were added to the US economy; it was less than the 170,000 expected.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% from 4% but was less than the expected 4.2%.
The Federal government lost 10,000 jobs
Showing some of the departures due to Elon Musk’s DOGE
However, many of the DOGE departures will not show up until March’s nonfarm payroll
Healthcare added 52,000 jobs
Retail lost 6,000 jobs
Wage growth slowed from 4.2% in January to 4% in February
In Their Words: Economic Outlook Group chief global economist Bernard Baumohl wrote, "What looms ahead, however, is troubling for the labor market. Even in February's employment release, there are telltale signs we need to prepare for hiring conditions to significantly weaken in the coming months."
Takeaway: On the surface, things are still great. Unemployment is not in a crazy spot; jobs are still being added to the economy. However, there is some shakiness under the surface.
380,000 workers left the labor force last month.
An additional 590,000 workers reported being unemployed
Companies
Stock Move After Earnings:
👀What to Watch:
Explaining Obscure Financial Terms
Stats of the Week
According to data from LexixNexis Risk Solutions, 27% of car insurance claims are classified as totaled. This is an all-time high. As cars are becoming more like computers on wheels, it is almost impossible to fix a car. Minor damages are becoming major because of the number of sensors that allow the cars to do what they need to do.
Takeaway: This is why car insurance has become so expensive and will continue to get more expensive. If most accidents are classified as totals, more money is needed to replace the vehicle.
TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the US to expand its operations in Phoenix, AZ. This follows a $65 billion plant that is already taking place. TSMC has been worried about the Trump administration's rhetoric that TSM "stole" chip manufacturing from the US. TSM feared that the administration would target them with a variety of things or remove subsidies.
My Take: Fear and Coercion will get you so far. It can work short-term, but you are planting the seeds of your destruction. It is the easiest way to get people to work actively for your demise. No one likes a boot on their neck.
February posted the highest number of layoffs since 2009, even higher than during the 2020 pandemic. About 62,000 of these layoffs were from the federal government due to DOGE.
Sports I Love
For the first time, the World Cup will be getting a Superbowl-style halftime show. This sounds exciting until you realize FIFA selected Coldplay to curate the list of artists for the show. I just hope they take inspiration from EA FIFA games cause those games have the best song mixes. Plus, they ain't American-centric. We want international vibes!
FIFA 2014 has the best song mix, in my opinion. Those who know, know!
*I am a tiny shareholder in this company.